DON’T JUST
WATCH IT.
ATTACK IT.
Two AI-powered mathematical models โ ELO and Poisson โ scan every World Cup match in real time. Find the edge before the market closes. Stake with precision. Compound across 64 matches.
HOW THE EDGE WORKS
Real-time odds pulled from 30+ sportsbooks via The Odds API. Match data from football-data.org. Line movement tracked the moment it happens.
The Odds API ยท football-data.orgELO model calculates win probabilities using team ratings, form, and tournament stage. Poisson model generates full scoreline distributions and all goals markets.
ELO + Poisson ยท Blended 45/55Model probabilities compared against vig-stripped bookmaker lines. Every market scanned โ 1X2, totals, BTTS, Asian handicap. Edge calculated to one decimal place.
Edge % ยท EV per $1 ยท Fair ProbFractional Kelly Criterion sizes your stake to the edge. Half-Kelly by default โ mathematically optimal variance control. Hard cap at 8% of bankroll per bet.
ยฝ Kelly ยท 8% Hard CapSettle each result and the next stake auto-recalculates against your new balance. Wins grow your exposure. Losses shrink it. You can never be wiped out.
Auto-compound ยท PersistentSingle-match scout for one-off bettors. Tournament compounder for the full 64-match system. Both tools updated after every result as ELO ratings improve.
Single Match ยท Tournament Mode| # | Match | Best Bet | Odds | Stake | Result | Bankroll |
|---|
TWO MODELS.
ONE EDGE.
Built and tested on World Cup historical data. The models run independently, then blend โ ELO weighted at 45%, Poisson at 55%, heavier on goals markets.
MODEL
Seeded from FIFA World Rankings for all 32 qualified nations. Applies exponentially-weighted form adjustment (ยฑ80 ELO points over last 10 matches). Updates after every result โ the model sharpens as the tournament progresses.
MODEL
Independent Poisson distributions for each team’s goals, parameterised by attack and defence ratings calibrated to WC 2018 + 2022 xG data. Dixon-Coles low-score correction for 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 markets. Full 7ร7 scoreline matrix computed per match.
THE FULL ARSENAL
Match result (1X2), over/under goals at 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 lines, Both Teams to Score, Asian Handicap -0.5/+0.5. All markets scanned every run. Edge ranked highest first.
Bookmaker overround removed before comparing against model. You see fair implied probability, not the inflated line. Edge is real edge โ not wishful thinking.
Half-Kelly by default. Mathematically optimal growth rate with significantly lower variance than full Kelly. Hard cap prevents any single bet exceeding 8% of bankroll.
Five production-grade Python modules. Run it locally. Plug in your own API keys. Modify the models. Your data never leaves your machine. One command to get value bets for today’s matches.
THE EDGE
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FAST.
64 matches. 32 nations. Every value bet โ ranked, staked, compounded.
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